Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Will President Obama go 'wobbly' on Syria?

President Obama has already given the Assad regime multiple mulligan's in their use of chemical weapons, so it wouldn't be a real surprise if Obama failed to hold Assad to account for his most recent chemical attack.  Assad has blatantly crossed Obama's 'red line' in the past so it's apparent he doesn't fear Obama's leading from behind foreign policy.

Just about every administration official has said Obama will punish Syria with air strikes, but there are some hints behind the scene that suggest Obama may not pull the trigger at all.  One senior administration official has said early today that Obama has not made a decision to attack Syria as of yet.  That statement alone may not indicate Obama's wobbly mindset, but taken together with his past inaction, it may give us some insight into his thinking.     

ABC News and the New York Times has already tried to help Obama walk back his 'red line' threat in order to give him cover in case he decides not to attack Syria.  And there are reports the Obama administration sent Jeffrey Feltman, UN Deputy Secretary, to Tehran on Monday in a failed effort to come to an 'understanding' with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in regards to Syria.  If true, it appears as though Obama may be looking for a way out of his current situation via negotiations with Iran.

Obama could fear a strike on Syria would upset China and Russia and we know he doesn't like to upset our enemies.  The President will go to great lengths to pacify those that don't have our best interests in mind.  Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have all announced they will attack Israel if the US attacks Syria and Obama knows it would be difficult to tie the hands of Bibi and the IDF in that situation.

President Obama legitimately has to consider the dangers posed to Israel and the region, but he should have thought about that before he wrote a check he wasn't willing to cash in regards to his threat to Assad.  I think Obama will ultimately attack Syria simply because he has backed himself so far into a corner, however, I wouldn't be surprised if he finds an excuse to go wobbly.

Iran, Russia, China and Syria are watching Obama to see if he finally has his big-girl panties on and to see if he will act as a super-power.  Our enemies already don't fear us and our allies don't trust Obama's leadership.  Obama's failure to act will only exacerbate that weak and unreliable notion.             

President Obama continues to dither on his decision to attack Syria.  He may find the threats from Iran and Syria too much to handle.  I still think President Obama is over-committed and will be forced to attack Syria, however, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he calls off Operation Enduring Confusion.  Syrian President Bashar Hafez al-Assad has fled the country with his family to Tehran, sources say. If true, this would be a perfect opportunity for a coup from within the ranks. Look for Saudi Arabia, western powers and even the Russians to try and persuade some 'moderate' government official to take over in Assad's absence. One that was acceptable to the FSA could go a long way in negotiations to end the conflict. Of course Assad leads by invoking fear, so it would take someone      

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