AN EARLY LOOK AT THE SENATE MIDTERM ELECTIONS

Senate Seats up for Election:
Two Democratic incumbents Democratic incumbent Retiring Democrat Republican incumbent Retiring Republican No election____________________________________________________________________

With all the socialism and record spending that is being shoved down our collective throats, the 2010 midterm elections are becoming our only real chance to blunt this effort. In this post, I will discuss the upcoming Senate seats that are up for grabs in 2010 and discuss the House seats at a later time. At present, the Senate is led by 58 Democrats with 2 independents and appears to be filibuster proof. The Republicans weigh in with a mere 40 members which includes our unreliable liberal Senators in the NE. There are at least 36 Senate seats up for grabs with many of those being safe for both parties. For the Republicans to have any real chance of stopping the Obamanation that is being forced through the Senate, we must retake 10 seats and protect all of our own. That is a tall order and won't be easy.

CQ Politics is projecting that there will be 7 toss ups in MO, IL, KY, OH, NC, NH, and CT. Lets take a look at those and see if we can detect a trend. Four-term incumbent Republican Senator Kit Bond of MO has announced that he will not seek reelection thus creating a vacancy. Republican Rep. Roy Blunt has indicated that he will run for this seat and I think Blount would be a strong candidate and should defeat former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the primary. On the Democratic side we have Sec. of State Robin Carnahan (daughter of former Sen. Jean Carnahan) that will lead the pack on the left. In the Illinois race, Blago appointee Roland Burris will not seek reelection which opens up the race for Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League Pres. Cheryle Jackson to slug it out. Republican Congressman Mark Kirk from the 10th district has announced he will run on the Republican side. I predict the Dems will keep this seat at this time.

In the Kentucky race, baseball Hall of Famer Jim Bunning was narrowly reelected by 51% to 49% in 2004. After too many political blunders Sen. Bunning has decided to retire which might help save this seat for the Republicans. Sec. of State Trey Grayson and Rep. Ron Paul son, Rand Paul, have expressed interest in running in the Republican primary. Two Democrats, both of whom have won statewide elections, have announced their candidacies. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and Atty. Gen. Jack Conway will most likely fight it out in the Democratic primary. This will probably be a tight race with whoever emerges as primary winners but I think the Republicans will retain this seat.

In Ohio, two-term Republican incumbent George Voinovich was last reelected with 64% of the vote in 2004 but has decided to retire. On the Republican side, former U.S. Representative and OMB Director Rob Portman should be a shoo in for the Republicans. On the Democratic side, Sec. of State Jennifer Brunner, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and US Rep. Marcy Kaptur are three heavy weights that are considering a run. Barack Obama won Ohio by 51.4% to 46.8% margin over McCain, but I think the Republicans can keep this seat. Freshman Republican Richard Burr was elected with 52% of the vote in 2004 but is facing low approval ratings in North Carolina. I think the Republicans might be best served if another strong candidate challenges Burr for the nomination. There are a plethora of candidates that may vie for the Democratic nod and it could get messy unless they whittle it down to just a few strong candidates. Obama won NC with 50% of the vote but with the current tailspin of Obama policies, I think we will retain this seat.

The biggest pickoff for the Republicans could be Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd. Mr. Dodd has seen his shine fade with the revelations of the "sweetheart" loan from Country Wide and his involvement with the AIG bonus scandal. Polls are showing Dodd in real trouble against former Republican Congressman Rod Simmons and State Senator Sam Caliqiuri if the election were held today. Fortunately for Sen. Dodd, he has another year to wait which is an eternity in politics. Another satisfying pickup could be with Democrat turned Republican turned Democrat Arlen Spector in Pennsylvania. I do think his days are numbered in the Keystone State. There are many surprises that can occur between now and the midterms, but with the current trends moving towards the Republicans and against the Obama Democrats, we have a great chance to make up ground. Republicans must remain focused and unite on a positive message to have any chance in 2010.

Sphere: Related Content